Backgammon- Those Probable Surebets
The outcome of the roll of a die or the toss of a coin is independent of what another player chooses to do. The roll of the die is not influenced by anything that has happened previously. Each roll of the die is a separate roll. The outcome of the roll of the die is unrelated to the outcome of any other roll of the die. Although the roll of the die is an independent roll, certain other rolls of the dice are dependent on the outcome of previous rolls. The combined effect of the roll of the die on the outcome of the roll of the die, is referred to as the ‘game of chance’ or, more plainly still, ‘luck’.
To a certain extent, even the game of chance can be scientifically determined. For instance, it is possible to assign a positive or negative cardinal value to the cards bearing the number 7. This way, the player can more easily figure out whether the cards are more or less likely to yield a 7 on the next round.
Say, in the game of Baccarat, you must bet on the banker’s hand or the player’s hand. Now, if you believe the banker’s hand to be more likely to win than the player’s hand, you wager more money. Your prospective winnings are calculated mathematically, out of the money you are going to bet there comes a point you are certain to win (or lose, naturally), you are sure of the mathematical odds, and you have a greater or less chance of winning the hand. In Baccarat, for instance, 5% of the money bet on the banker is won. On the other hand, the player has a less than 5% chance of winning, because he has a lower stake on the player’s hand.
However, there are some other situations in the game of Baccarat that give the player even less of an edge. In the game of Baccarat, the bigger the stake, the better the odds for the player. The following then are some situations where the player has a definite edge over the banker:
When the player has a twenty in the hole, and the banker has a ten showing, then the situation is known as a push. In this case, the banker has the better odds, but the player has the better edge, simply because the player can’t really lose much.
When you have one to eight in the hole, and the banker has an eight showing, then the situation is known as a push, because the banker is a favorite. If you bet the banker, there is a good chance you will win, but you can also lose, so it’s best to bet equally on both hands.
When you have nine in the hole, and the banker has six showing, then the situation is a low card. This is a good hand for the player, but not so good for the banker. If you bet on the banker, you will win if he comes out before you. You don’t necessarily have to give up on the hand, because the odds are still toward you.
When you have ten or eleven in the hole, and the banker has nine showing, then the situation is a red card. Players don’t go to the bathroom very often without a headache, but a bad headache can cause a player to have a bad day, or a banker to have a very slow day. If you bet on the banker, and he goes a long time without getting any hands, then you are likely to have your money back, if not, you’ll probably be throwing your money away. The odds are against you.
When you have a large negative stack of chips, and the banker has anywhere from eight to ten in the hole, then it’s time to panic. In this case you might as well bet on the “184.108.40.206” option, because your odds are slowly but surely rising against you. In fact, the odds are greater than your chance of winning. Unless you are a good Amir, it’s probably time to throw away your hand.
On the other hand, if you have a very large positive stack of chips, it’s time to pace yourself, and bet small. This gives the other players less of an edge, and keeps your risk low.